Expectations fall towards a January rate cut
With Treasury yields rising on the back of a Trump election victory, expectations have fallen as to how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be in cutting interest rates this winter.
The fed funds rate, which determines what banks charge each other for overnight lending, currently ranges between a targeted 4.75% to 5.0%. At this point, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that the U.S. central bank will decide on a quarter-percentage point cut, which equals 25 basis points, at Thursday’s meeting.
Market pricing currently points toward a 71% chance of another quarter-point cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This probability compares to 77% on Wednesday, and 72% a week ago. Future rate probabilities found in the CME FedWatch tool are derived from trading in 30-day fed funds futures contracts.
On the other hand, expectations for a January rate cut have shifted as a result of Wednesday’s election. The CME FedWatch tool points to market pricing currently favoring an interest rate pause in January.
Indeed, the probability of an additional quarter-point cut in January following a November and December cut has fallen to 29% from 41% on Wednesday and 45% a week ago. Meanwhile, the odds that the Federal Reserve keeps rates the same in January has climbed to 54%, up from 48% on Wednesday and 44% this time last week.
— Lisa Kailai Han
See the stocks moving after hours
These are some of the stocks making big movers in extended trading:
- Lyft — The ride-hailing company popped nearly 20%. Third-quarter revenue came in at $1.52 billion, topping consensus estimates for $1.44 billion, per LSEG. Guidance for the fourth quarter topped the Street’s expectations, with Lyft forecasting bookings of $4.28 billion to $4.35 billion, despite FactSet consensus estimates calling for just $4.23 billion.
- SolarEdge Technologies — The maker of residential solar power inverters dove 18% after third-quarter revenue missed the Street’s expectations.
- E.l.f Beauty — The cosmetics retail stock jumped 11% after a stronger-than-expected quarterly report and a guidance hike.
— Alex Harring
Stock futures are little changed
Stock futures are neat flat shortly after 6 p.m. ET.
Futures tied to the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all traded marginally above flat. It comes after the preceding session brought a huge post-election rally for stocks.
— Alex Harring
