The head of NATO just told allies they must return to a “war mindset” and “turbo-charge” defence spending to counter growing threats in what is surely the most consequential speech by an alliance chief since the Cold War.
The big question is whether national governments and their publics across Europe – including here in the UK – are listening.
Sir Keir Starmer appears for now to favour peacetime priorities over preparing for war.
His newly announced set of milestones includes voter-friendly goals such as raising living standards, reducing hospital waiting lists and building more homes, despite his own military chiefs increasingly sounding the alarm bell about the parlous state of defence.
It is a very real example of how deciding to allocate – or not – billions of extra pounds to buy weapons and rebuild armies is still a political choice in a liberal democracy that is no longer in a war of survival and may have forgotten the peril posed by the former Soviet Union.
But this freedom to choose may soon be over.
In unusually stark language, Mark Rutte, the new NATO chief, warned all 32 member states of the “long term” danger posed by a confrontational Moscow as well as focusing on the threat from China, twice stressing how Beijing is expanding its arsenal of nuclear weapons.
“We should be profoundly concerned. I know I am,” the former Dutch prime minister said on Thursday in his first major public speech since taking charge of NATO in October.
“Russia, China, but also North Korea and Iran, are hard at work to try to weaken North America and Europe,” he said.
“They are testing us. And the rest of the world is watching. No, we are not at war. But we are certainly not at peace either.”
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In more than 20 years of covering wars and reporting on defence, I cannot remember a NATO boss using such strong language to talk about existential threats.
It signals a genuine sense of crisis inside NATO headquarters in Brussels, which is not known for being unduly alarmist.
“Danger is moving towards us at full speed,” Mr Rutte said, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine as well as rising acts of sabotage, cyber hacks and other hybrid attacks across Europe that are suspected to be linked to Moscow.
“We will not be safe in the future unless we are prepared to deal with danger,” he said. “We can do that. We can prevent the next big war on NATO territory. And preserve our way of life.
“This requires us all to be faster and fiercer. It is time to shift to a wartime mindset. And turbo-charge our defence production and defence spending.”
As well as aiming his words at European allies and Canada, the intervention by Mr Rutte was also doubtless designed to catch the attention of Donald Trump.
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The incoming US president – whose country is by far the most powerful member of the transatlantic alliance – has threatened to leave NATO unless allies spend and do a lot more.
It means even if Mr Rutte’s warnings about the danger posed by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea fall on deaf ears, the UK and other member states may have little choice but to rapidly boost defence spending or risk losing their biggest and strongest ally.
