Benchmark indices concluded 2024’s final trading session on a muted note, with the Nifty closing virtually unchanged at 23,644.80 points while the Sensex ended marginally lower by 109.12 points (0.14 per cent) at 78,139.01, as investors remained cautious amid global uncertainties and elevated U.S. Treasury yields.
The year 2024 saw the Nifty deliver an 8.7 per cent return, marking its ninth consecutive year of gains, though falling short of the average investor expectation of 12 per cent. The BSE Sensex posted an annual gain of 8.17 per cent, despite facing significant headwinds in the latter part of the year. The Nifty Smallcap 100 and Nifty Midcap 100 indices surged over 20 per cent each. Most of the sectoral indices too registered new highs during the year. NSE Construction and Pharma indices posted a return of 94 per cent and 68 per cent respectively.
The year 2024 saw the Nifty deliver an 8.7% return, marking its ninth consecutive year of gains, though falling short of the average investor expectation of 12%. “2024 was a year of tug of war between Bulls & Bears marked by volatility majorly driven by global microeconomic data points followed by geopolitical tensions impacting markets. Till September 2024 it was FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) kind of market trend while last 3 months it is like JOMO (Joy of Missing Out),” said Prashanth Tapse, Sr VP Research at Mehta Equities Ltd.
As of December 30, 2024, the All India Market Capitalization stood at ₹44,247,478.81 crore, reflecting a robust increase of ₹7,152,578.65 crore compared to ₹37,094,900.16 crore at the beginning of the year, according to BSE data.
“The Indian growth story remains robust, and several positive developments in 2024 reinforce our optimism for the coming year. The significant strides in infrastructure development, a thriving manufacturing sector, and an ongoing digital transformation are laying the foundation for sustained economic growth,” said Vijay Bharadia, Managing Partner & CIO at Wallfort PMS.
The year was marked by synchronized positive returns across major asset classes globally, with India maintaining a strong position supported by government initiatives in electronic manufacturing, aerospace maintenance, and specialized engineering. “2025 is anticipated to be a year for stock pickers, as there are no major themes which are evolving at this stage with a focus on niche opportunities rather than broad market performance,” according to Manish Bhandari, CEO and Portfolio Manager at Vallum Capital Advisors.
In Tuesday’s session, market breadth remained positive with 2,321 stocks advancing against 1,647 declining on the BSE. The broader market showed resilience, with the Nifty Midcap 100 index inching up by 0.02 per cent and the Nifty Smallcap 100 index gaining 0.69 per cent.
Sector-wise, Energy, Pharma, PSU Bank, and Metal sectors posted gains between 0.47 per cent and 1.02 per cent, while IT, Realty, and Financial Services sectors faced pressure. The IT index emerged as the biggest laggard, dropping over 1.2 per cent.
Among individual stocks, BEL led the gains on the NSE, rising 2.84 per cent, followed by ONGC (2.73 per cent), Kotak Mahindra Bank (2.54 per cent), Trent (2.22 per cent), and Coal India (1.72 per cent). On the flip side, Adani Enterprises declined 2.41 per cent, followed by Tech Mahindra (-2.06 per cent), TCS (-1.27 per cent), Infosys (-1.07 per cent), and SBI Life (-0.92 per cent).
The fixed-income market emerged as a bright spot in 2024, with the Indian debt market reaching $2.69 trillion by September. “The 10-year Government Security yield declined from 7.18 per cent to 6.75 per cent, while infrastructure bonds offered returns of 7.25 per cent-8.25 per cent,” noted Vishal Goenka, Co-Founder of IndiaBonds.com.
Looking ahead to 2025, Axis Securities projects the Sensex resistance and support levels at 91,800 and 70,200 respectively, while the Nifty is expected to target 27,500 if it sustains above 23,000. Healthcare, Auto, Telecom, Realty, Metals, and Power sectors are expected to lead the market performance.
“We expect to have a decent year of growth with a new government in place with strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Factor dependent for growth would again be similar to last year like geopolitical tussle, US Fed interest rate trajectory and Donald Trump’s tariff policies along with revival of local corporate earnings,” noted Tapse. He identified Quick Commerce, Infrastructure, Housing, Defence, and Pharma as the top five sectors for 2025, with Nifty and Sensex targets at 27,000 and 90,000, respectively.
“We anticipate a stronger second half (H2) compared to the first half (H1) of 2025, driven by earnings recovery and sector-specific momentum. As earnings recovery solidifies, we project the Nifty to reach 27,000 levels in 2025,” said Gaurav Garg, Research Analyst at Lemonn Markets Desk.
The India VIX, a volatility gauge, rose by 3.40 per cent to 14.4475, indicating increased market uncertainty. Technical analysts suggest the market remains in a broader range, with Nifty finding support at 23,500 and resistance at 24,000 levels.
“The resilience in the pharma and healthcare sectors, coupled with selective buying in heavyweight stocks, continues to limit the pace of decline,” observed Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, advising participants to focus on stock selection and risk management.
Navneet Munot, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, HDFC AMC Ltd. said, “the world stands at the cusp of an investment cycle – out of compulsion. A polarising world bulking up defense budgets and a shift in supply-chains, climate change prompting overhaul of existing systems, and AI adoption rewiring everything.”
Among the year’s top performers were Dixon Technologies (316 per cent), Amber Enterprises (233 per cent), and REC Ltd (214 per cent), while Rajesh Exports (-56 per cent), Dish TV (-47 per cent), and Zeel (-43 per cent) were the major underperformers of 2024.
