JPMorgan on Sagility
Initiate Overweight with TP of Rs 54
Niche healthcare player catering largely to nondiscretionary spends
Secular tailwinds from increasing outsourcing in US healthcare
Deep domain expertise and client relationships should drive increased mining
Exposure to non-discretionary spends keeps growth stable
High structural EBIT margins
See 50% earnings CAGR over FY24-27
MS on SBI Cards
Maintain Equal-weight with TP of Rs 650
SBI Card’s November spending market share fell MoM to 14.9% vs. 15.8% in October 2024
Spending fell 20% YoY industry +5% YoY, reflecting ongoing impact (starting February) of RBI notification on corporate card spending
Market share in number of credit cards in force stood at 18.7% as of November 2024
Aggregate daily spending was up 8% YoY so far in December, Vs 4% in November
Jefferies on Telecom
Impact of Tariff Hike Normalizes
In October 2024, the sector’s active subs base jumped sharply by 6.8 million MoM
Bharti/ Jio/BSNL/MTNL gaining share
4G/5G subscriber base fell in Oct, led by Jio, suggesting Jio weeding out inactive 4G customers
Bharti led the data subscriber additions in October implying better and premium customer mix of Bharti
VodaIdea’s subscriber losses continued
Continue to expect Bharti and Jio to gain market share in the near term
MS on Telecom
Industry subs fell for fourth month to 1,150mn (-3.3mn); Airtel’s increased MoM & its market share gap vs. Rjio has fallen 100bp in last 4 mths
RJio & VIL’s shares were 40% (-21bp) & 18.3% (-12bp), respectively, vs. Bharti Airtel 33.5% (+26bp)
Airtel’s increased MoM; it has been a key beneficiary in last four months post tariff hike.
Airtel’s market share in wireless data subscribers was 31.1% (+37bp) vs. Rjio 51.3% (-19bp), VIL 14% (-4bp) and “Others inluding BSNL” 3.6% (-14bp)
Elara Sec on Defence
Expect fireworks in Q4 as indigenization up
Contract awarding to jump multifold in the next 2-3 years
India’s defence imports drop by 1,100 bps to 28% in FY24
Hindustan Aeronautics – Maintain Buy TP at Rs 5465
BEL – Maintain Buy TP at Rs 345
Bharat Dynamics – Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy; Hike TP at Rs 1300 from Rs 1230
Jefferies on Air Traffic
India’s domestic air pax growth jumped to 12% YoY in Nov-24
In Nov, Industry achieved milestone of 500K+ domestic pax in a day
IndiGo’s PLF climbed to ~90% in Nov, 2nd-best Nov in 5 years; in December so far it has been around 92%
In Nov, IndiGo’s mkt share inched up to record 63.6%, Air India share was 27.3% (11-month low)
ATF prices remain range-bound
PC on Defence
The defence sector stands out as a compelling investment theme, offering multiple growth levers and strong visibility for long-term execution
Key drivers include:
(1) robust order books and a healthy pipeline supporting sustained growth visibility
(2) timely execution enabled by localization and sub-contracting
(3) strategic moats driven by government preference and domain expertise
(4) cash-rich balance sheets with minimal working capital challenges, supported by stage payments
(5) in-house R&D initiatives bolstered by DRDO collaboration
(6) favourable government policies prioritizing local manufacturing, strategic partnerships, and import restrictions
Margins from core defence products are expected to expand
Maintain a positive outlook on the sector
BEL – Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 390
Hindustan Aeronautics – Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 5500
Data Patterns – Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 3400
Solar Industries – Initiate Buy with TP of Rs 12000
Bharat Dynamics – Initiate Neutral with TP of Rs 1400
Antique on ITC
Buy, TP Rs 563
Hotels should continue to deliver strong double-digit sales growth even on a high base.
Only paper business could continue to witness pressure in short term as a result of dumping of Chinese paper & higher domestic wood prices.
Expect cig biz to deliver vol/value growth of 3%/6% in 3Q.
FMCG biz expected to outperform peers
However, sharp raw material inflation should affect profit margins of both cig & FMCG
Agri biz expected to report healthy rev growth
ITC is better placed in current challenging environment backed by it’s
a) Broad-based cigarette portfolio,
b) Premium FMCG portfolio,
c) Buoyancy in Hotels,
d) Improvement in the Agri business
Avendus Spark on PVR Inox
Maintain Buy, TP Rs1,910
CY25 Release Calendar Shows Hollywood Movie lineup & Bollywood Capitalising Sequels Standout
Hollywood Studios Lining up 25 Mega Budget Movies, Well Spread Across Next 12 Months
Bollywood Capitalising Sequels To Already Successful Franchises & Proven Genres
Strong Content Creates Room For Price Hikes
There Is Continued Focus On Correcting Cost Structure With Help Of favourable Ind Structure
Macquarie on Siemens
Neutral, TP cut to Rs 6650
Siemens’ 4Q (Sep-Q) earnings call highlighted a near-term slowdown in private capex
While new capex across biz on track, Co highlighted limited near-term visibility on large-value tenders for mobility & energy
Nuvama on Defence
Stay optimistic on with key catalysts at play:
i) Huge localisation push to reduce dependence on disrupted global supply chains
ii) Continued modernisation efforts with larger programs coming ahead of expected timelines
Top picks: BEL, DATA PATTERN
Nuvama on Greenlam
Buy, TP cut to Rs 615
Management meet Key takeaways:
iv) Particle board operations—due to start in Q3FY25—shall be 50% utilised by FY26E.
That said, taking cognisance of near-term challenges, cutting FY25E/26E/27E EPS by 16%/12%/11%
