Investor confidence in ASML Holding has been waning, but Bernstein remains bullish on the Dutch company which makes high-tech machines that the world’s biggest chipmakers rely on. “We remain constructive on ASML,” the investment bank’s analysts wrote in a Dec. 18 note. “Although we have revised down our estimates few times over the last six months to reflect the deteriorating outlook, we are still factoring in robust growth for next year, around 13% YoY, slightly below guidance at 32.5 billion euros [$34 billion],” they added. ASML’s shares are listed on the Euronext Amsterdam and trade as an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) in the U.S. under the ticker ASML . Shares in the Dutch stock are up nearly 1.5% this year, while its ADR is down around 5.4%. Bernstein has an outperform rating on both stocks and has a target price of 730 euros on the Dutch stock and $767 on the ADR, implying upside potential of around 5.5% and 7.1%, respectively, as of Dec. 27. ASML-NL YTD mountain Shares in ASML Shares in ASML plunged in October after the early release of its third-quarter results. Its net bookings for the September quarter were 2.6 billion euros — well below the 5.6 billion euro LSEG consensus estimate. Net sales, however, surpassed expectations and hit 7.5 billion euros. “The 30% topline growth ASML saw in 2023 has proven hard to maintain. Early on in the year, they had set the tone to expect a transition year for 2024—which proved true with only 2% topline growth now expected,” Bernstein’s analysts wrote. Aside from lower bookings, ASML is facing a tougher business outlook in China and export restrictions on shipments imposed by the Dutch government . China is a key market for the semiconductor giant, and was “arguably the only driver of DUV [deep ultraviolet] growth” in 2024, Bernstein’s analysts noted. A key concern they noted was what will drive DUV growth in 2025, “given the continued softness in RoW [rest of the world] mature nodes and ASML guiding China to be only 20% of system sales.” They now anticipate ” EUV [extreme ultraviolet] and service growth will more than outweigh DUV sales decline.” “Despite ASML providing a lower guide for 2025 EUV systems … driven in part by foundry customer delays from Intel and Samsung, we expect strong EUV revenue growth to be driven by ASP expansion, partially due to HNA higher price,” they explained. They expect a 11% increase in service revenue next year. The Netherlands-based company had previously announced in October that it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Ryan Browne contributed to this report.
