Sir Keir Starmer has for the first time said it was British policy to “put Ukraine in the strongest possible position for negotiations”.
During a speech at the Lord Mayor’s Banquet in London on Monday, the prime minister said he wants Ukraine to be in a position of strength “so they can secure a just and lasting peace on their terms that guarantees their security, independence – and right to choose their own future”.
But make no mistake. This is a significant shift.
Only last month, both Sir Keir and French President Emmanuel Macron were promising to “support Ukraine unwaveringly and for as long as necessary to thwart Russia’s war of aggression”.
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In the summer, his predecessor Rishi Sunak stated British policy on Ukraine was based on the principle that “aggression cannot and will not prevail” while also talking of a just and lasting peace “based on international law and the UN charter”.
If negotiations happen and settle on some kind of compromise, as they always do, Russian aggression will have prevailed to some extent at least.
If Russia, as many seem to expect, walks away with de facto control of at least part of the chunk of Ukraine it has taken by force and wins a commitment Ukraine will not join NATO for the foreseeable future, Vladimir Putin will have been vindicated, at least in part.
His decision to wield naked unprovoked brutal aggression against a neighbour will have achieved some of its ends.
That Western leaders are now talking about negotiations between Ukraine and Russia will, say critics, be a sign of their abject failure to “thwart Russian aggression”.
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The West failed to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, hoping the threat of “swift punitive” financial sanctions would suffice.
Then it failed to act with sufficient urgency and unity to help Ukraine repel that invasion.
Western leaders seem ready to accept inevitability of negotiations
Russia may be reaching the limit of its ability to support a war it is undoubtedly winning, drafting in North Korean and Yemeni troops to avoid an unpopular second mobilisation of Russians. And with inflation soaring the Russian economy is creaking.
But US President-elect Donald Trump seems determined to press on and expedite negotiations and other leaders, including Ukraine’s own and now Britain’s, seem ready to accept their inevitability.
Sir Keir gave the impression negotiations were around the corner. That could be jumping the gun. We have no idea when they will start, if they do.
For some, Sir Keir’s words will be overhasty.
Many would prefer Europe to hold the line even if the US is about to walk away from giving Ukraine the military support it has relied on for two years.
