Target: ₹1,800
CMP: ₹1,098.70
We reiterate our positive stance on Gulf Oil Lubricants India Ltd (GOLI), led by steady core volume growth (8 per cent core volume CAGR over FY24-27E, over 2x of industry growth), and a 13-14 per cent EBITDA margin profile supported by premiumisation efforts, brand building, input cost management, and dedicated marketing initiatives.
GOLI has invested about ₹150 crore till date for acquiring equity stake in three EV-related businesses, viz ElectreeFi (charging management software provider), Indra Renewables (AC home charger manufacturer in UK, with GOLI having exclusive rights for the India business), and Tirex (DC fast-charger manufacturer in India). Tirex currently caters to 8-10 per cent of the fast-charger market in India which the management expects will reach $1-1.4 billion by FY30, with Tirex planning to retain its Indian market share as well as explore the export potential.
Deepening of OEM relationships, expanding industrial customer base, and B2C remain key focus areas. GOLI’s EV charging foray is driven by plans to double Tirex’s turnover annually for the next 3-4 years, with 5Y revenue target of ₹500-700 crore annually, combined with long-term margin profile similar to that of GOLI’s core business.
Key risks: Adverse base-oil prices/currency fluctuation, competition, technology-based changes.
